{"id":1633,"date":"2009-04-28T19:34:13","date_gmt":"2009-04-29T03:34:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/?p=1633"},"modified":"2009-04-28T20:28:43","modified_gmt":"2009-04-29T04:28:43","slug":"gah","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/?p=1633","title":{"rendered":"Gah!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Another one of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/?p=1574\">the many perturbing errors in Jeffrey's <cite>Subjective Probability<\/cite><\/a>, this from &sect;4.1: <blockquote style=\"font-size: smaller ;\">If I am sure that it was one of the years from 1951 to 1959, with equal probabilities, then my <var>ex<\/var>(<var>X<\/var>) will be <span style=\"display: inline-block ; vertical-align: middle ; text-align: center ; font-size: smaller ;\"><span style=\"border-bottom: solid thin ; line-height: 1.1 ;\">1951<\/span><br \/>9<\/span> + <span style=\"display: inline-block ; vertical-align: middle ; text-align: center ; font-size: smaller ;\"><span style=\"border-bottom: solid thin ; line-height: 1.1 ;\">1952<\/span><br \/>9<\/span> + &#8230; + <span style=\"display: inline-block ; vertical-align: middle ; text-align: center ; font-size: smaller ;\"><span style=\"border-bottom: solid thin ; line-height: 1.1 ;\">1959<\/span><br \/>9<\/span>, which works out to be 1954.5.<\/blockquote> One doesn't even have to do any <em>arithmetic<\/em> (I didn't) to spot the error; for a sequence of an odd number of equally-spaced integers, the average is the middle-most value, in this case 1955.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Another one of the many perturbing errors in Jeffrey's Subjective Probability, this from &sect;4.1: If I am sure that it was one of the years from 1951 to 1959, with equal probabilities, then my ex(X) will be 19519 + 19529 + &#8230; + 19599, which works out to be 1954.5. One doesn't even have to [&hellip;]","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,117,4],"tags":[578,202],"class_list":["post-1633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commentary","category-communication","category-public","tag-bad-math","tag-everyday-frustrations"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1633"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1633\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}