{"id":1508,"date":"2009-04-01T14:25:27","date_gmt":"2009-04-01T22:25:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/?p=1508"},"modified":"2017-01-07T23:19:49","modified_gmt":"2017-01-08T07:19:49","slug":"we-dont-need-no-stinkin-bayesian-up-dating","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/?p=1508","title":{"rendered":"We Don't <em>Need<\/em> No Stinkin' Bayesian Up-Dating!"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>The Classic Monty Hall Problem<\/h3><p>Andy is a contestant in a game.  In this game, each contestant makes a choice amongst three tags.  Each tag is committed to an outcome, with the commitment concealed from each contestant.  Two outcomes are undesirable; one is desirable.  Nothing reveals a pattern to assignments.<\/p><p>After Andy makes his choice, it is revealed to him that a specific tag that he did not choose is committed to an undesirable outcome.  Andy is offered a chance to change  his selection.  Should he change?<\/p><h3>Three Contestants<\/h3><p>Andy, Barb, and Pat are contestants in a game.  In this game, each contestant makes an independent choice amongst three tags.  Each tag is committed to an outcome, with the commitment concealed from each contestant.  Two outcomes are undesirable; one is desirable.  Nothing reveals a pattern to assignments.  In the event that multiple players select the same tag, outcomes are duplicated.<\/p><p>After all contestants make their choices, it is revealed that Andy, Barb, and Pat have selected tags each different from those of the other two contestants.  And it is revealed that Pat's tag is associated with an undesirable outcome.  Andy and Barb are each offerd a chance to change their selections.  What should each do?<\/p><div><div id=\"polls-14\" class=\"wp-polls\">\n\t<form id=\"polls_form_14\" class=\"wp-polls-form\" action=\"\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php\" method=\"post\">\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"poll_14_nonce\" name=\"wp-polls-nonce\" value=\"8915765b2e\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"poll_id\" value=\"14\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/?p=1508\">3-Player Monty Hall<\/a><\/strong><\/p><div id=\"polls-14-ans\" class=\"wp-polls-ans\"><ul class=\"wp-polls-ul\">\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-69\" name=\"poll_14\" value=\"69\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-69\">Neither should change.<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-70\" name=\"poll_14\" value=\"70\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-70\">Andy should stick, but Barb should change.<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-71\" name=\"poll_14\" value=\"71\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-71\">Andy should change, but Barb should stick.<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-72\" name=\"poll_14\" value=\"72\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-72\">Andy and Barb should exchange choices.<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<\/ul><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><input type=\"button\" name=\"vote\" value=\"   Vote   \" class=\"Buttons\" onclick=\"poll_vote(14);\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(14);\" \/><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"#ViewPollResults\" onclick=\"poll_result(14); return false;\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(14); return false;\" title=\"View Results Of This Poll\">View Results<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n\t<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"polls-14-loading\" class=\"wp-polls-loading\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-polls\/images\/loading.gif\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading ...\" title=\"Loading ...\" class=\"wp-polls-image\" \/>&nbsp;Loading ...<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Classic Monty Hall ProblemAndy is a contestant in a game. In this game, each contestant makes a choice amongst three tags. Each tag is committed to an outcome, with the commitment concealed from each contestant. Two outcomes are undesirable; one is desirable. Nothing reveals a pattern to assignments.After Andy makes his choice, it is [&hellip;]","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36,720,4],"tags":[299,1460,413],"class_list":["post-1508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-epistemology","category-public","tag-decision-theory","tag-monty-hall-problem","tag-probability"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1508"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1508\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oeconomist.com\/blogs\/daniel\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}